Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Let's talk money.

I need to start putting money in a 401k.
I need a job.
Ok, I'm only 20....first I need to score an internship this summer.

Then INVEST. And when I get some money to play with, buy some stocks.

Top 10 stocks, according to Fortune and CNN Money, are as follows.

1. American International Group (AIG)
• World's largest insurer (Thanks to Hurricane Katrina, which provided the opportunity to boost premiums and impose more stringent terms and conditions on commercial policies, status also attributed to AIG's foreign life-insurance unit, which accounts for 28 percent of earnings (this unit should continue its rapid expansion, particularly in the immense Asian market.)
• Stock is cheap, trading for 12 times estimated 2007 earnings
• Projected growth is impressive- profits increasing 13% annually over the next several years

2. Altria (AIG)
• World's largest cigarette maker (controls 41% of US Market, 60% in Mexico, 40% in Western Europe and is one of the biggest food processors, through its Kraft Foods subsidiary
• Has been consistently one of the best performers on the charts for the past several years
• Altria is selling for 15 times projected 2007 earnings and offers a 4.1 percent dividend yield.

3. ConocoPhillips (COP)
• Based in Houston, 3rd largest U.S. oil operator (behind Exxon Mobil and Chevron) with US refining capacity of 2.2 million barrels a day
• With recent $35 billion purchase of Burlington Resources, ConocoPhillips is now the country's largest natural-gas producer
• CEO Jim Mulva isn't "sitting on piles of cash he's built up" from recent high energy prices, instead is aggressively reshaping company to spur growth (I like that-- good entrepreneurial energy)
• Shares sell for just 7 times estimated '07 earnings (compared to 11 and 9 times earnings by Exxon Mobil and Chevron, respectively) due to Mulva's willingness to embrace new products and Conoco's debt load (debt is manageable, however, given Conoco's strong cash flows, Mulva's stewardship of shareholder money and smart use of assets)

4. Diamond Offshore (DO)
• Oil drillers (hire out rigs to oil operators such as Conoco Phillips for a daily fee)
• Rising oil prices --> daily rates skyrocketing --> share prices skyrocketing
• Analysts expect Diamond's earnings to rise 178% in 2006 and another 86% in '07. Expecting strong rates through '12 and forward.
• Disagreement between equity investors (expect drillers' earnings to fall with the price of oil) and commodities traders (strongly bet that oil futures are looking good)
• Available drilling rigs, with deep sea rigs in particular, are in short supply -- rich opportunity for Diamond, which has more rigs available than most of its rivals
• Another plus: Diamond put out a $1.50/share special dividend (additional to regular $0.50 dividend last February, and 2007's special dividend is projected from $3-$5 a share.) That adds up to a stock with "86% projected earnings growth trading at only nine times next year's estimated earnings and offering a possible dividend yield of 5 percent to 7 percent. In other words, a steal."

5. General Dynamics (GD)
• General Dynamics is the leading manufacturer of tanks and armored vehicles.
• Over the past several months the Pentagon has announced plans to sell $450 million in Northrop Grumman communications equipment to Jordan, $2.9 billion in General Dynamics Abrams tanks to Saudi Arabia, and $144 million in Lockheed Martin-made Patriot missiles to Japan.
• Federal tax revenues (15% growth in 2005) will continue to increase due to homeland-security spending, which will grow at least as much under a Democratic Congress as did under Republicans
• Increased defense spending and supplying current forces, two main aims of GD, translates to earnings - trades at 16 times 2007 earnings. Analysts expect those earnings to come in 13 percent ahead of this year's, and previous estimates have tended to be low.
• In addition, GD's fast-growing corporate jet business, Gulfstream, has been extremely successful due to the fact that more corporations are seeking to "shield their executives from the hassles of flying commercial" -- Orderbacklog boasting $6.5 billion, up from $5.2 last year.

6. Joy Global (JOYG)
• Makes equipment for the mining industry, particularly coal
• Commodity prices skyrocketing (in turn, shares of Joy Global increasing- $5 to $70 last April)
• China: most promising market (coal is mined without mechanized equipment, ie. by hand with picks and shovels) with projected revenues hitting $500 MILLION by 2010 *$200 million up from last year*
• "China produces about two billion tons of coal annually, double the U.S. output, and the Energy Information Administration predicts China's demand for coal will triple by 2030."

7. Microsoft (MSFT)
• Investors praise "high return on equity, robust earnings growth, growing free cash flows, and formidable competitive advantages."
• Controls majority of market - Windows runs on 9 out of 10 computers, offers everything from business servers to the new Xbox machine
• Deal with Novell, now a proponent of Linux, allows customers top use Windows and Linux systems together
• More than $90 billion has been returned to shareholders in stock buybacks and dividends over the past few years, a trend that has forecasted to continue.

8. JPMorganChase (JPM)
• Company is comprised of investment banking, financial services for consumers, small business and commercial banking, financial transaction processing, asset and wealth management, and private equity divisions.
• Return on equity of JPM (10.5%) vs Citigroup (17.5%) -- JPMorganChase has "significant potential" to boost its profits.
• This translates to a great potential for JPM to improve both market share and profitability.

9. RadioShack (RSH)
• New CEO with great reputation as a "shrewd cost cutter" - previously CEO of KMart, turned a $5 mill quarterly loss into a $155 million profit in 1 year.
• Under his leadership, estimated $0.73 a share will grow to $2 or more in 2008-09.
• To facilitate success, RadioShack needs to close less profitable stores, improve customer service, create more shelf space for what is hot and eliminate what is not selling

10. Southwest Airlines (LUV)
• Shares dramatically increasing for major airlines- but for SW Airlines, carrier that makes the most money, ironically stocks were down 3% as of early December
• SW Airlines are finding new sources of revenue such as cargo, new markets (Denver, Philadelphia, Ft. Myers), potential to capture gates and passengers from competitors going through mergers and bankruptcies
• Morgan Stanley analyst William Greene envisions a future in which SW will increase US market share to 50% up from 17% today due to low fares and leading cost structure, and thus profits and share price will be much, much higher in the next years.
• It is the best time to buy shares in SW Airlines— analysts name it is one of the best performing stocks of the past three decades.



So there you have it.

Sunday, December 17, 2006

Just do it.

A couple of hundred years ago, Benjamin Franklin shared with the world the secret of his success. Never leave that till tomorrow, he said, which you can do today. This is the man who discovered electricity. You think more people would listen to what he had to say. I don't know why we put things off, but if I had to guess, I'd have to say it has a lot to do with fear. Fear of failure, fear of rejection, sometimes the fear is just of making a decision, because what if you're wrong? What if you're making a mistake you can't undo?

The early bird catches the worm. A stitch in time saves nine. He who hesitates is lost. We can't pretend we hadn't been told. We've all heard the proverbs, heard the philosophers, heard our grandparents warning us about wasted time, heard the damn poets urging us to seize the day. Still sometimes we have to see for ourselves. We have to make our own mistakes. We have to learn our own lessons. We have to sweep today's possibility under tomorrow's rug until we can't anymore. Until we finally understand for ourselves what Benjamin Franklin really meant. That knowing is better than wondering, that waking is better than sleeping, and even the biggest failure, even the worst, beat the hell out of never trying.

--- Grey's Anatomy

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

so, you think you're invincible?

For as long as I could remember, it had seemed to me that life was about to begin -- real life. But there was always some obstacle in the way. Something to be got through first, some unfinished business, time still to be served, a debt to be paid. Then life could begin.

Finally, it dawned on me that these obstacles were my life. Life is nothing but a series of challenges, defining moments. Start living the moments and the years will take care of themselves.

Make an extra effort to remember that this very moment exists to be enjoyed, to be savored. Even the bumps in the road are worth experiencing in the moment because then you can forget them and move on.

Regrets. I don’t have them. Mistakes, yes, I have made them. Sometimes we just need to make mistakes to learn. We need to try our best, struggle, and not always succeed, because if winning comes easy all the time, how much can you really treasure your victory? What real triumph comes without a battle? If you get first place in the race, but had no competition along the way, have you really won? If we fall in love and fall out, maybe even get hurt in the process, pick up a battle scar or bruise to your ego- hey, that’s just dandy. You live, you learn. Contrary to popular belief, we aren’t invincible. Bruised egos, like scraped knees, can be healed. Then you can move on. Live in the moment, free your mind. Enjoy the ride.

Sunday, September 17, 2006

the most merciful thing

“The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all of its contents. We live on a placid island of ignorance in the midst of black seas of infinity, and it was not meant that we should voyage far. The sciences, each straining in its own direction, have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such a terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the deadly light into the peace and safety of a new dark age.”
-Francis Wayland Thurston

Sunday, August 27, 2006

New horizons

"Change has a considerable psychological impact on the human mind. To the fearful it is threatening because it means that things might get worse. To the hopeful it is encouraging because things might get better. To the confident it is inspiring because the challenge exists to make things better."

In spirit of the new semester, the changes and the challenges, I've decided to write down my goals, both short and long term. This way, when I feel overwhelmed, I can look at this list and put into perspective the trials that I may be faced with. It's going to be a tough year, but I want to succeed, I am driven to shine.


What do I want in life?
What are my values, my goals, my endeavors?

Today and in the future:
Financially secure
Successful
Confident
Healthy
Happy
Classy
Compassionate
Thankful

1 year:
Be more organized
Dean’s list
Responsible in all my roles (student, friend, leader)
Secure a summer internship in the business or law field
Think innovatively and creatively
Thank each and every individual personally who helps me along my way

3-5 years:
Secure a challenging career
or be enrolled in a top ten business or law school

10 years:
Secure a career in a challenging, satisfying field of work, while working my way up the corporate ladder.
Gain respect and knowledge as I advance in my field, never settling for second best yet approaching each task, regardless of its importance or difficulty, with dedication and passion.
Live comfortably and perhaps even luxuriously yet giving back to others less fortunate and giving thanks to those to have helped me along my way.
Spend time with those I care about, enjoying life to the fullest, and living in the moment
Family-oriented and in happy, loving, long-term relationship



I've got my eyes set far beyond the horizon. The world is open to endless possibilites. It's a beautiful life.

Friday, August 25, 2006

Infinitesimalm perhaps, insignificant not.

"The tiny space I occupy is so infinitely small in comparison with the rest of space, in which I am not and which has nothing to do with me and the period of time in which it is my lot to live is so petty beside the eternity in which I have not been, and shall not be....And in this atom, this mathematical point the blood is circulating, the brain is working and wanting something...Isn't is loathsome? Isn't it petty?"
-Ivan Turgenev

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

paradise is a state of mind.

I believe that paradise is a state of mind.
I believe that passion is what drives you in life.
I believe good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment.
I believe the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.
I believe in taking chances and facing my most indomitable fears. Besides, life is full of risks anyway, why not take them?
I believe we write our own stories and each time we think we know the end - we don't.
I believe there is good in every situation.
I believe in the sand beneath my toes.
I believe the four right chords can make me cry.
I believe that music can set you free.
I believe that people care too much about the wrong things.
I believe that everything perfect is flawed.
I believe there are no coincidences- everything happens for a reason.
I believe everything we do has an effect on the world.
I believe that life is only what you make of it.
I believe that there is truth and love is real.
I believe in me.